Thursday, September 21, 2023
FMTRADES PEOPLE
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Business
  • Economy
  • Finance
  • Markets
  • Commodities
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Trading
  • Investing
  • Forex Trading
  • ETFs
FMTRADES PEOPLE
No Result
View All Result
Home Commodities

Lessons from the ‘tanker war’ for Ukraine

by FM Tradespeople
August 20, 2023
in Commodities
0
Lessons from the ‘tanker war’ for Ukraine
152
SHARES
1.9k
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter


Obtain free Battle in Ukraine updates

We’ll ship you a myFT Each day Digest electronic mail rounding up the newest Battle in Ukraine information each morning.

The author is a non-resident scholar on the Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace Eurasia Heart, Berlin

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine final February, Moscow has succeeded in considerably limiting Kyiv’s maritime commerce. The Kremlin had tried to supply an easing of the blockade on Ukrainian ports as a bargaining chip with the west in alternate for partial lifting of sanctions. Unable to safe something tangible, final month Russia withdrew from the grain deal brokered a 12 months earlier and commenced bombing Ukraine’s ports, attempting to destroy the nation’s grain export capability altogether.

Just a few days later, Ukraine used sea drones to attack two Russian vessels within the Black Sea, declaring Russia’s Black Sea ports a “struggle threat space”. The intention is to cut back Russia’s personal exports — above all, oil — by forcing insurance coverage corporations and ship house owners to cease vessels from working on these routes.

Ukraine is attempting, in the meantime, to finish the blockade by inviting to its ports vessels crusing beneath the flags of nations that it believes Russia received’t dare assault. One part-German-owned vessel made it out of Odesa this week on its strategy to Istanbul.

Ukraine in all probability hopes that an assault on a Nato member-flagged vessel could be seen as an act of aggression, triggering Nato’s Article 5, which states that an assault on one member is an assault on all members. A direct battle between Nato and Russia is just not what Moscow desires, whereas Ukraine could be glad to see direct Nato involvement.

That is all very paying homage to the “tanker struggle” that lasted from 1984 to 1988 throughout the Iran-Iraq struggle, as each side tried to cease one another’s oil commerce by attacking tankers heading for the enemy’s ports — together with vessels crusing beneath the flags of a number of Nato international locations such because the UK and the US. A number of dozen industrial vessels have been broken, even a US navy frigate.

On the time, regardless of the dangers of getting into the Gulf, there was no scarcity of vessels keen to sail there for oil. Insurance coverage corporations continued to offer cowl, albeit at elevated prices. Not one of the Nato international locations whose vessels had been attacked tried to invoke Article 5.

Within the present battle, attacking tankers within the Black Sea runs the chance of oil spills and important ecological harm for all of the littoral states, together with Ukraine. This may occasionally give Kyiv pause.

There may be, nevertheless, one other approach of stopping exports from Russian Black Sea ports: attacking oil terminals, primarily the 2 within the sea port of Novorossiysk. The primary, Sheskharis, is situated inside Novorossiysk harbour, which might make an assault from the ocean comparatively troublesome.

The second terminal, Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka, operates from moorings a number of miles out to sea, the place tankers dock. These are weak to assault and more durable to restore. However they’re used to export oil produced in Kazakhstan: attacking them would primarily inflict harm on western oil corporations working in Kazakhstan.

Within the occasion of Novorossiysk exports grinding to a halt, Russia would want new routes for its oil. That might be simpler for crude, export volumes of which had been falling even earlier than Russia began limiting manufacturing as a part of the latest settlement with Opec+.

Russia’s Ust-Luga oil port on the Baltic Sea has the capability to deal with Novorossiysk’s volumes, although it could lengthen the journey for Russian oil headed for India and China and make shipments to Turkey far much less worthwhile.

Rerouting exports of Russian oil merchandise could be extra painful. Since an EU embargo got here into drive this February, their most important markets have been international locations within the Mediterranean and Africa. It might additionally create issues for Bulgaria and Romania, for whom Russian oil was deemed so very important that they have been exempted from the embargo.

If Ukraine succeeds in forcing Russia to reroute its exports by way of the Baltic Sea, it’s going to imply losses not just for Moscow but additionally for its clients — together with main creating international locations and a few of Ukraine’s personal allies.



Source link

Tags: LessonstankerUkrainewar
  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
Aluminium price slump ‘nearing a bottom’ as clean energy demand rises

Aluminium price slump ‘nearing a bottom’ as clean energy demand rises

August 30, 2023
5 wins for UPS workers that could influence pay, standards for others

5 wins for UPS workers that could influence pay, standards for others

August 21, 2023
The AI wave will only benefit smart stockpickers

The AI wave will only benefit smart stockpickers

August 20, 2023
Investors pulling money out of stock ETFs for first time in a year

Investors pulling money out of stock ETFs for first time in a year

August 22, 2023
German minister proposes tougher rules on Chinese foreign direct investment

German minister proposes tougher rules on Chinese foreign direct investment

0
HBAR, OP, INJ and RUNE flash bull signals as Bitcoin price looks for stability

HBAR, OP, INJ and RUNE flash bull signals as Bitcoin price looks for stability

0
Lessons from the ‘tanker war’ for Ukraine

Lessons from the ‘tanker war’ for Ukraine

0
Introducing Roger, A New Online Bank For Military Recruits

Introducing Roger, A New Online Bank For Military Recruits

0
Tether Responds to Stablecoin Lending Revival Move Amidst Scrutiny from WSJ

Tether Responds to Stablecoin Lending Revival Move Amidst Scrutiny from WSJ

September 21, 2023
Grayscale’s Crypto Fund Discounts Extend Far Beyond Bitcoin

Grayscale’s Crypto Fund Discounts Extend Far Beyond Bitcoin

September 21, 2023
BTCUSD Rebound Tested by 50-day SMA

BTCUSD Rebound Tested by 50-day SMA

September 21, 2023
USDJPY 20 SEP 2023 – TRADE WITH THE AMAZING COMBO ITALO PIVOTS, ITALO VOLUME AND ITALO TREND INDICATOR – Analytics & Forecasts – 20 September 2023

USDJPY 20 SEP 2023 – TRADE WITH THE AMAZING COMBO ITALO PIVOTS, ITALO VOLUME AND ITALO TREND INDICATOR – Analytics & Forecasts – 20 September 2023

September 21, 2023

Live Prices

Recent News

Tether Responds to Stablecoin Lending Revival Move Amidst Scrutiny from WSJ

Tether Responds to Stablecoin Lending Revival Move Amidst Scrutiny from WSJ

September 21, 2023
Grayscale’s Crypto Fund Discounts Extend Far Beyond Bitcoin

Grayscale’s Crypto Fund Discounts Extend Far Beyond Bitcoin

September 21, 2023

Categories

  • Business
  • Commodities
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Economy
  • ETFs
  • Finance
  • Forex Trading
  • Investing
  • Markets
  • Trading

Recommended

  • Tether Responds to Stablecoin Lending Revival Move Amidst Scrutiny from WSJ
  • Grayscale’s Crypto Fund Discounts Extend Far Beyond Bitcoin
  • BTCUSD Rebound Tested by 50-day SMA
  • USDJPY 20 SEP 2023 – TRADE WITH THE AMAZING COMBO ITALO PIVOTS, ITALO VOLUME AND ITALO TREND INDICATOR – Analytics & Forecasts – 20 September 2023
  • Kraft is recalling some American cheese slices over potential choking hazard : NPR

© 2023 FMTRADES PEOPLE | All Rights Reserved

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Business
  • Economy
  • Finance
  • Markets
  • Commodities
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Trading
  • Investing
  • Forex Trading
  • ETFs

© 2023 FMTRADES PEOPLE | All Rights Reserved